Theories of Income Determination
1. Classical Theory of Income Determination
2. Keynes Theory of Income Determination
3. Saving-Investment Analysis and its effectiveness in Income Determination
1. Classical Theory of Income Determination
The Classical Theory of Income Determination is developed by Say. Therefore this theory is also known as Say’s Contribution in the determination of income in the economy. The classical theory of income determination assumes that there is always full employment of labor and other resources in the economy.
In fact full employment is considered to be normal situation and any departure from full employment is considered as abnormal. Even if at any time, there is not actual full employment the classical theory asserts that there is always a tendency towards full employment. The free play of economic forces itself brings about the fuller utilization of economic resources including labor. Any interference with the free play of market forces will fail to bring about full employment in the economy. Therefore the classical theory of income determination advocates that the government should not make any interference into the activities of the economic forces and if it is done full employment is achieved. The assumption that there is always full employment of resources is justified in the classical contribution which is popularly known as Say’s Law of Market. This law is in fact the fundamental of classical theory of income determination.
According to Say’s law, general overproduction and hence general unemployment are logical impossibilities. Say pointed out that overproduction and unemployment can’t be common occurrences by saying that “supply itself creates its own demand”. Say explains that the main source of Demand is the flow of factor income generated from the processes of production itself. Whenever any new productive process is initiated and a certain output results, the demand for the output is also simultaneously generated on account of the payment to the factors of production involved in the existing production process. Every output brought into existence injects an equivalent amount of purchasing power in circulation which ultimately leads to its sale so that there is no surplus output or overproduction.
It is observed that process of manufacture brings into being an equivalent amount of purchasing power in the form of wages, profits which would ultimately leads to its purchase. Hence, there can be no overproduction of any commodity at any time. This is the essence of Say’s Law. If general overproduction is impossible, there is no possibility of general unemployment. Therefore Say’s law assumes the non-existence of unemployment at any time. Full employment assumes by the classical economist is consistent with a certain amount of voluntary unemployment. Likewise, full employment of the classical contribution is also consistent with certain amount of fictional unemployment. The classical economist admits the existence of such unemployment in the full employment society.
But the classical economists are not prepared to admit the existence of involuntary unemployment. The classical economists do not believe that work is not available to the workers if they are willing to work. When they pointed out that in the society involuntary unemployment is existing the classical economists give the option that such unemployment is due to the interference by the government with the free working of the economic system. If the interference is stopped and the wages are allowed to go their own level, unemployment will disappear and everyone who is willing to work will get the job in the economy. Therefore the classical contribution believes that involuntary employment is due to the rigidity of the wage structure. If the wages are lowered sufficiently at the time of employment, all involuntary employment will disappear. The solution for unemployment according to classical economist, is to ensure the free working of the economic system by removing all interference whether by the trade unions or by the government.
The implication of the classical theory of income determination is that there is automatic adjustment of every element with the working of the economy. If the supply increases, the demand will also increase and these will be adjusted within supply and demand and therefore the government should not interfere with the working of economic system.
Another implication is that general over-production is possible. As production increases, the income of the concerned factors of production also increases and consequently new demand is created and increased stocks are sold in the market.
The other implication is that since general over-production is possible there will be no general unemployment. If there is some unemployment somewhere in the economy, it will automatically disappear in course of time.
The other implication is that employment of the unemployed resources will pay its own way. It is obvious that when unemployed resources are put towards they certainly help in increasing the volume of goods and services in the economy and as such, the size of national income increases and it becomes possible to give payment to the newly employed factors of production.
The final implication is that the economic system, according to Say, is automatic and works itself without any external forces. If there is some problem, the system has the capacity to remove the problem in due course of time and therefore the government should not interfere with the working of the economic system and allow the prices, wages and interest rate to be free to adjust them to the changing economic scenario.
2. Keynesian Theory of Income Determination
The first systematic theory of income determination is developed by Keynes and therefore it is known as Keynesian Theory of Income Determination.
This theory is also known as demand deficiency theory. This theory attributes unemployment to a lack of effective demand to a deficiency of outlay on consumption and on investment. Keynes measures the total output of the economy in terms of income and employment. The greater the output, the greater will be the employment and result in greater income. The net output depends upon the effective demand.
Effective demand has 2 components –
(i) consumption demand, and (ii) investment demand.
The consumption demand comprises the demand for consumer goods while the investment demand is for capital goods. It is the effective demand up to which the volume of employment and income depends. Since the employment is governed by effective demand it is clear that unemployment is due to lack of sufficient effective demand. If unemployment is to be removed, the solution is an increase in effective demand.
It is observed that as national income increases, national consumption does not increase in the same proportion as national income. There arises a gap between community income and community consumption. This gap, unless it is filled by an increase in investment accounts for the existence of unemployment. Therefore it is observed that in order to promote employment and income, effective demand must be increased by increase in investment in the economy.
Effective demand is determined by 2 factors, i.e., Aggregate Demand Function and Aggregate Supply Function. Just as in market analysis, price is determined by the market forces of supply and demand, likewise, in Keynesian theory; effective demand is determined by the forces of aggregate demand and aggregate supply.
Aggregate demand function is a schedule of a various amounts of money which the entrepreneur in the economy expects from the sale of their output at different levels of employment and income. It refers to the receipts which the entrepreneurs taken together expect from the sale of the output.
On the other hand aggregate supply function is a schedule of the various amount of money which an entrepreneur in an economy must receive from the sale of output at different levels of employment and income. Therefore aggregate supply function represents the cost whereas the aggregate demand function represents the receipts of the entrepreneur in the economy. Generally the cost must in no case be more than receipts. If at any particular level of employment and income entrepreneur finds that the receipts are less than the cost, they will stop production and refuse to give employment to that particular number of workers so long as the cost remains less than the receipts, the employment in an economy will go on increasing till both of them are equal. In no case the employers will give employment to the workers, if the costs are greater than the receipts.
Employment depends upon the effective demand and effective demand is governed by the aggregate demand function or receipts. Effective demand is the point where aggregate demand function and aggregate supply function are exactly balanced against each other, just as price is the point where supply and demand are exactly balance against each other.
In Keynesian theory of income determination, it is observed that Keynes has provided little attention to the parameter aggregate supply function and has devoted his entire attention to the parameter aggregate demand function. The reason is that Keynesian Economics is short term economics dealing only with short-term aspect. In the short term the aggregate supply function is assumed to be given as such. Keynes provides exclusive attention on the parameter aggregate demand function. Assuming aggregate supply function is to be given the essence of Keynesian Theory of Income Determination is that effective demand or employment or income is determined by aggregate demand function which depends on two parameters that is (a) consumption function or prosperity to consume, (b) investment function, i.e., inducement to investment. If employment is to be increased, expenditure both on consumption goods as well as investment goods must be increased. If the economy is facing unemployment the solution is to increase total spending by the economy on consumption goods and investment goods in order to increase employment and income. If on the other hand, the economy is facing with the problem of inflation, the solution is to cut down total spending by the economy on consumption goods and investment goods. Therefore it is concluded that Keynesian Theory of Income Determination is applied to both the situation, i.e., Deflation as well as Inflation in the economy.
3. Saving-Investment Analysis and its effectiveness in Income Determination
The saving analysis developed by Keynes is important contribution in the study of income determination. Keynes saving investment and functions are as important to income determination analysis as Marshall’s supply and demand curves to price analysis. In fact saving and investment functions are the foundation of Keynes theory of income determination. Equality between saving and investment is the most important condition of equilibrium. In Keynes theory of income determination, aggregate investment always equals aggregate savings and no level of national income can be sustained without this equality between saving and investments.
The equality between saving and investment has also been pointed out by classical economist. The classical economists held the view that saving and investment are always equal. But there are some differences between the classical concept and the Keynesian concept:
1.
The classical concept held the view that the equality between saving and investment was brought about by the rate of interest. If saving and investment are unequal at a particular time, they are brought into equilibrium by changes in the rate of interest. Therefore, for the classical concept the rate of interest is acting as the most important mechanism for equality between saving and investment. However Keynes held the view that equality between saving and investment is brought about not by the rate of interest but by changes in national income.
2.
The classical economists observe equality between saving and investment at a point of full employment. There was nothing important aspect about it because the classical economists assumed that the existence of full employment is the normal feature of the economy. But Keynes departed from the classical concept in holding the view that saving and investment are normally equal to each other at the point of less than full employment. Therefore Keynesian contribution is accepted as the contribution of under-employment equilibrium.
The equality between saving and investment can be observed in the following 2 methods:
(3.1) Method of Accounting Equality
(3.2) Method of Functional Equality
(3.1) Method of Accounting Equality:
This method is also known as method of logical identity. It does seems strange that saving and investment should be equal to each other despite the fact that the savers and the investors are two entirely different sets of persons and make their respective decisions to save and invest independently without reference to each other.
The employment of labor results in two things –
(i) It results in national output, and
(ii) It results in the creation of national income.
National output and national income are the same things and they are exactly equal to each other. National output comprises consumption goods and investment goods. National output is represented by ‘O’, consumption goods is represented by ‘C’ and investment goods is represented by ‘I’ and then the equilibrium becomes
O = C + I
Likewise, income is divided under 2 heads that is Consumption and Saving that is a part of the national income is spent on consumption while the rest is saved. National income is represented by ‘Y’, consumption is represented by ‘C’ and saving is represented by ‘S’ then the equilibrium becomes
Y = C + S
It is already known that
O = Y
And accordingly, the equilibrium is
C + S = C + I
And therefore ultimately we get,
S = I
The equality between saving and investment can be established in another way also. Since investment means the monetary outlet on goods and services other than consumption goods.
Therefore it is, NI – NC. Therefore we get,
I = Y – C
where,
I = investment
Y = income
C = consumption
On the other hand saving is equal to income minus consumption and therefore,
S = Y – C
therefore we finally get that,
S = I.
It is observed that the identity of saving and investment holds good at all levels of income.
The accounting equality between saving and investment is significant as it fully explains the error of composition. It clearly states that if all individuals try to save more, the aggregate saving will not increase. The reason is that if one individual saves more, then the other individual is saving less. One individual’s expenditure is another individual’s income. It means if the former spends less or saves more, the latter’s income is correspondingly reduced and the capacity to save is also reduced. Therefore the attempt of the economy to save more without affecting an increase in the total income will be definitely failure.
The accounting equality between saving and investment is not very effective. In the detailed analysis –
i) It provides us with no information about the causal factors that determine the levels of savings, investment, income and consumption in the economy.
ii) It provides us with no adjustment mechanism by which equality between saving and investment is brought about. Therefore this constitutes the static approach to the equality between saving and investment.
(3.2) Method of Functional Equality:
The functional equality method not only states the causal factors which determine income, consumption, saving and investment but it also gives idea on the actual process by which equality between saving and investment is brought about.
In the following diagram we observe how the equality between saving and investment takes place. SS is the saving curve and II is the investment curve. Both these curves increase with a corresponding increase in the level of national income. Both these curves intersect each other at point P. therefore OQ level of income is accepted as equilibrium income at this point. This is also known as unique level of national income or the equilibrium level of national income. At OQ1 level of income we observe that investment is R1Q1 but the saving is K1Q1. The investment exceeds saving. Therefore, the income will increase and having increased will stop at the point Q because at this point saving and investment are equal. At OQ level of income the saving is R2Q2 and investment is K2Q2 and therefore in this situation investment is less than saving. Therefore in this case the income will decline and having declined will revert to OQ level of income because at this point both saving and investment are equal. It is therefore clear that saving and investment are equal to each other only at the equilibrium income level and no other income level, exactly in the same manner in which demand and supply are equal only at the equilibrium price and nowhere else. Just as the price brings about equilibrium between demand and supply, in the same manner income brings about equality between saving and investment. According to Keynes, the economy will be in disequilibrium when either saving is in excess of investment or investment is in excess of saving. The economy will be in equilibrium when there is functional equality between saving and investment so that the national income is neither rising nor falling. It is pointed out that at the income level OQ in the following diagram the economy is no doubt in equilibrium because saving is PQ which is equal to the investment which is also PQ. This however doesn’t imply that OQ level of income is full employment equilibrium income. Saving and investment are no doubt equal to each other at OQ level of income, but it does not necessarily mean full employment in the economy. It only implies that saving and investment are equal to each other at less than full employment which is popularly known as under-employment equilibrium.
Diagram
Findings:
(i) P = equilibrium point where saving=investment
(ii) OQ = equilibrium income level determined from equilibrium point ‘P’
It is pointed that functional equality between saving and investment provides with a dynamic approach to the problem of income determination. It helps us to identify not only the causal factors between saving and investment, but also the actual process of adjustment between saving and investment. Therefore the functional equality method is definitely superior to the accounting equality method.
In this method the functional equality between saving and investment is brought about is actual practice. The equality between saving and investment is brought about by changes in national income. In fact, changes in income is the main parameter in this analysis. When investment increases, the business activity in the capital goods industry will increase. More individuals will get employment in capital goods industries and their level of income will also increase. They will spend more money on consumption goods. This will have the effect of improving the business activity in the consumption goods industry and therefore more employment will be generated in consumption goods industry. In this way there will be an all round increase in individuals’ income which will help them to save more and ultimately in this way saving will increase and increased saving will ultimately become equal to the increased investment.
The saving and investment analysis in income determination has generated two important concepts that is (1) consumption function or prosperity to consume, and (2) investment function or inducement to invest
(1) Consumption Function or Prosperity to Consume: The consumption function is an important determinant of effective demand of employment or income. The schedule of prosperity to consume expresses the relationship between total income and total consumption. Keynes contribution states that when aggregate income increases, consumption expenditure will also increase but by smaller amount. Therefore this results a gap between total income and total consumption. This gap is generating investment parameter. Therefore this gap can be filled by generating adequate amount of investment if the income is to be maintained. Therefore investment becomes essential if employment is to be increased. According to Keynes, it is the lack of investment which accounts for the existence of unemployment. The consumption function is more or less stable in the short run and it is fixed by the established habits of the individual in the economy. If it is desire to increase employment the actual determinant is the investment function parameter.
(2) Investment Function or Inducement to Invest: According to Keynes investment means an addition to real capital asset and it does not mean the purchase of existing capital asset. Investment, according to Keynes means real investment not financial investment. Investment according to Keynes depends on two parameters: (i) marginal efficiency of capital, and (ii) rate of interest.
An entrepreneur has to make a comparison between the two parameters. The entrepreneur observes to it that the marginal efficiency of capital is not in any way less than the rate of interest. The businessmen have to see that profit is coming from investment which is not less than the rate of interest. The marginal efficiency of capital is defined as the highest rate of return over cost emanating from an additional or marginal unit of a capital asset. The entrepreneur estimates the marginal efficiency of capital of an asset by taking two factors into account that is – (a) the supply price or cost of the asset, and (b) the expected income which is coming from the lifetime of the asset.
Therefore it is observed that the entrepreneur makes the estimate of the marginal efficiency of capital asset by taking its supply price and the prospective income to be generated from the asset.
The above analysis has explained in detail the effectiveness of saving and investment analysis as theory of income determination. Although the method of accounting equality is reflecting the effectiveness of saving and investment analysis, but the functional equality method is identifying not only the causal factors which determine income, consumption, saving and investment as well as the actual process by which equality between saving and investment is brought about in actual practice. Therefore it is concluded that the saving and investment analysis is important contribution in macroeconomics with regard to the analysis of income determination in the economy.
